Skipjack tuna prices for delivery to Bangkok, Thailand -- a global benchmark -- have continued to decrease in recent weeks, following the bearish trend started last November.

Meanwhile, yellowfin prices in Europe have also dropped, following skipjack in Bangkok and also Manta, Ecuador, another global benchmark. Also, while suppliers expect EU yellowfin prices to rebound shortly, buyers are hoping to keep them down.

Skipjack prices for January delivery to Bangkok have dropped to $1,550 per-metric-ton, a drop of around $200/t month-on-month, while in Europe, Asian yellowfin tuna over 10 kilograms was priced at around €2,100/t CIF, according to one source at a large European fishing firm. 

A second US-based source agreed with the price level, quoting Bangkok skipjack at $1,550-1,570/t and a yellowfin offer level from the Western Pacific at around €2,100-€2,200/t. 

It remains to be seen if the skipjack price drop in Bangkok will continue towards $1,500/t, the second source also noted. "For sure, nobody I have spoken to yet is forecasting a price increase for a month or two yet," he told.

Packers might struggle to sell finished products based off skipjack raw material priced at $2,100-2,300/t, when buyers are looking for finished products based off a $1,550/t level, he said. Deliveries for December were agreed at between $1,700-$1,750/t. 

EU yellowfin prices close to rebound?

The first source pointed out that, despite yellowfin prices having decreased in recent months, they might be close to rebounding.

While some sources from suppliers and trading firms expect yellowfin prices to increase already in February or March, European buyers are keen to keep prices low until at least May, to compensate for the high prices at which they were forced to buy until October, which is the fish that they currently have in stock. 

"Yellowfin prices were €2,500-€2,600/t in early December, but then dropped to €2,300/t for EU fish, €2,200 for Asiatic fish: now €2,100/t [for fish from Asia]. [However, the decrease] is temporary. Yellowfin catches are weak; in two-three weeks, inventories of raw fish will have decreased and yellowfin prices will go up again," the first source -- an executive at a large supplier said.

"Now, with the Indian Ocean boats back out with a new yellowfin quota, supplies should be better. But no great supply is in view, as I think boats will more strictly manage their free school catches of big yellowfin, so as to make this year’s quota stretch as far as possible," the second source said, agreeing with the first. 

"So [EU yellowfin] prices can be expected to pick up as we approach February-March, when packers tend to increase their inventory for summer sales," he noted. 

But the owner of a large European tuna cannery disagreed; yellowfin prices will not increase at least until May or June. He noted.

"Stocks in Europe are adequate, but with [tuna bought at high] prices last October, received in November," he noted, pointing out that supermarkets had still not fully absorbed the increase in price taken place in the second half of 2017.

Bangkok, Manta skipjack tuna prices tumble

Therefore, European buyers are "very nervous" in the wake of a fishing campaign in the Indian Ocean, where new volumes -- at a much lower cost -- are going to be available, he said.

Vessels are already out fishing in the Indian Ocean with a fresh yearly quota, he noted.

It is expected that 100,000t-120,000t will be fished between January and April in the Indian Ocean, the main part of the fishing campaign, the buyer also said. 

Europe, the biggest market for yellowfin, will try to lower current prices, he said.

Maybe not by much, but perhaps €50-€100/t compared with the current €2,100/t (for Asian tuna) and €2,200/t (for tuna from Indian and Atlantic), the buyer said. 

January is a month of low consumption, as many canneries in Spain and Italy carry out their yearly maintenance, he also noted.

Tuna consumption in Europe has grown about 1.5-2% in 2017 and is expected to continue growing with this pace in 2018, he said.

But, profit margins for canneries have decreased following two years of high prices, where the price rise has not fully been transferred to consumers, he also said.